PSRC’s PSRC Population, Households and Employment Forecast was last updated in 2006. Forecast assumptions and review were based on the comprehensive plans and emerging development trends at the time. Since the release of the forecasts, important changes to underlying planning assumptions and trends have occurred:

• The region adopted VISION 2040 in April 2008, an updated plan for accommodating the nearly 5 million people and 3 million jobs forecast for the region by 2040. Many cities and counties in the region are or will be working in the next several years, to adopt new growth targets and comprehensive plans consistent with VISION 2040.

• Some jurisdictions may have adopted major changes to local zoning regulations that are not accounted for in the current forecasts.

• The country and region entered into a recession unanticipated by the 2006 forecasts.

PSRC has been working to complete the full implementation of its new forecasting model, UrbanSim, replacing the DRAM/EMPAL models used in the 2006 forecast work. This implementation effort is expected to continue through the fall of 2010, when PSRC will begin modeling work leading to updated forecasts.

In the interim period, the PSRC Population, Households and Employment Forecast produced in 2006 will continue to be made available for users. However, PSRC recommends users review the forecasts carefully and make adjustments deemed reasonable, given their study objectives. PSRC staff are available to provide technical assistance to members as needed.

PSRC is in the process of developing supplemental information to assist users opting to adjust the forecasts:

• Suggested methods and technical advice on how to adjust the current forecasts to be consistent with new growth targets or revised comprehensive plans.

• Guidance for cities and counties on how forecasts used in local comprehensive plan updates will be evaluated in the Plan Review process.

In addition, PSRC has added additional years of actual estimated population, households and employment by zone to the forecast database: revised 2000 base year, 2006, and 2008. These data can be used as base year modeling inputs, and to evaluate the reasonableness of the forecast years, especially the 2010 and 2020 data, given the current economic downturn that is not reflected in the 2006 forecast work.